History matters

The economy is doing well now. Trump is in office. Therefore, Trump supporters are overjoyed because, to them, correlation equals causation. “Even if you don’t like Trump, you have to admit that he’s been great for the economy,” they argue. However, no one should “have to admit” that – because it makes no sense.

I’ve frequently asked Trump supporters why they think this. Before the tax reform bill, they’d usually mumble some nonsense, unquantifiable answer about so-called “job creators” trusting Donald Trump. Post tax reform bill, Trump supporters have simply moved the goal posts to argue that the economy is good because taxes on rich people (and others) have been lowered.

Virtually every graph I’ve seen of positive economic indicators shows an increase under Trump…with these steady trends starting during the Obama administration. Although I’m open to being proved wrong, I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Trump alone can be credited with spurring trends that started well before he even announced his presidential ambitions.